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En el instante 11 de octubre de 2025, 1:22:48 UTC,
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Añadido recurso Multivariate Forecasting of Homicide Count for the Metropolitan Zone of Guadalajara, México a Multivariate Forecasting of Homicide Count for the Metropolitan Zone of Guadalajara, México
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2 | "author": "SIV Pe\u00f1a, VEA Carrasco", | 2 | "author": "SIV Pe\u00f1a, VEA Carrasco", | ||
3 | "author_email": null, | 3 | "author_email": null, | ||
4 | "creator_user_id": "a3da3ec9-3fd4-47a4-8d04-0a90b09614e0", | 4 | "creator_user_id": "a3da3ec9-3fd4-47a4-8d04-0a90b09614e0", | ||
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8 | "value": "Conferencia" | 8 | "value": "Conferencia" | ||
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17 | "description": "Este grupo integra las publicaciones | 17 | "description": "Este grupo integra las publicaciones | ||
18 | acad\u00e9micas derivadas de los proyectos de investigaci\u00f3n del | 18 | acad\u00e9micas derivadas de los proyectos de investigaci\u00f3n del | ||
19 | Observatorio Metropolitano CentroGeo. Incluye art\u00edculos | 19 | Observatorio Metropolitano CentroGeo. Incluye art\u00edculos | ||
20 | presentados en congresos nacionales e internacionales, manuscritos en | 20 | presentados en congresos nacionales e internacionales, manuscritos en | ||
21 | formato preprint, cap\u00edtulos de libro y trabajos publicados en | 21 | formato preprint, cap\u00edtulos de libro y trabajos publicados en | ||
22 | revistas cient\u00edficas especializadas. Estos materiales reflejan la | 22 | revistas cient\u00edficas especializadas. Estos materiales reflejan la | ||
23 | labor de investigaci\u00f3n, desarrollo metodol\u00f3gico y | 23 | labor de investigaci\u00f3n, desarrollo metodol\u00f3gico y | ||
24 | an\u00e1lisis territorial del observatorio, contribuyendo al avance | 24 | an\u00e1lisis territorial del observatorio, contribuyendo al avance | ||
25 | del conocimiento en temas urbanos, metropolitanos y geoespaciales.", | 25 | del conocimiento en temas urbanos, metropolitanos y geoespaciales.", | ||
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39 | "metadata_created": "2025-10-11T01:22:47.537329", | 39 | "metadata_created": "2025-10-11T01:22:47.537329", | ||
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41 | "name": | 41 | "name": | ||
42 | cide-count-for-the-metropolitan-zone-of-guadalajara-mex-e0cef14926c8", | 42 | cide-count-for-the-metropolitan-zone-of-guadalajara-mex-e0cef14926c8", | ||
43 | "notes": "The Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara (MAG) is the result | 43 | "notes": "The Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara (MAG) is the result | ||
44 | of an urban conurbation phenomenon involving the capital of the State | 44 | of an urban conurbation phenomenon involving the capital of the State | ||
45 | of Jalisco. It stands as the most politically, economically, and | 45 | of Jalisco. It stands as the most politically, economically, and | ||
46 | socially significant region in the central part of Jalisco. However, | 46 | socially significant region in the central part of Jalisco. However, | ||
47 | this prominence also makes it a highly criminal area, with high | 47 | this prominence also makes it a highly criminal area, with high | ||
48 | homicide rates driven by various social phenomena, including organized | 48 | homicide rates driven by various social phenomena, including organized | ||
49 | crime and other social factors. One of the most crucial challenges for | 49 | crime and other social factors. One of the most crucial challenges for | ||
50 | governance in Jalisco or any of the municipalities that comprises the | 50 | governance in Jalisco or any of the municipalities that comprises the | ||
51 | MAG is the coordination of security forces to effectively reduce | 51 | MAG is the coordination of security forces to effectively reduce | ||
52 | homicides. In 2023, the homicide rate decreased compared to the | 52 | homicides. In 2023, the homicide rate decreased compared to the | ||
53 | previous year, a figure that could be attributed to the efforts within | 53 | previous year, a figure that could be attributed to the efforts within | ||
54 | the MAG to coordinate municipal police forces. However, this also | 54 | the MAG to coordinate municipal police forces. However, this also | ||
55 | suggests that crimes in neighboring municipalities may help predicting | 55 | suggests that crimes in neighboring municipalities may help predicting | ||
56 | crimes in a MAG municipality. In this study, we conducted a comparison | 56 | crimes in a MAG municipality. In this study, we conducted a comparison | ||
57 | of the SARIMAX forecasting model, using as exogenous variables other | 57 | of the SARIMAX forecasting model, using as exogenous variables other | ||
58 | crimes committed in the neighboring municipalities that also | 58 | crimes committed in the neighboring municipalities that also | ||
59 | constitute the MAG, to improve shortterm (1 and 2 months) prediction | 59 | constitute the MAG, to improve shortterm (1 and 2 months) prediction | ||
60 | of the Guadalajara homicide count. In addition to the improevment of | 60 | of the Guadalajara homicide count. In addition to the improevment of | ||
61 | the forecasting results, identifying the features that best predict | 61 | the forecasting results, identifying the features that best predict | ||
62 | future crimes sheds light on the relation among different types of | 62 | future crimes sheds light on the relation among different types of | ||
63 | crime and neighboring geographical demarcations.", | 63 | crime and neighboring geographical demarcations.", | ||
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91 | the State of Jalisco. It stands as the most politically, economically, | ||||
92 | and socially significant region in the central part of Jalisco. | ||||
93 | However, this prominence also makes it a highly criminal area, with | ||||
94 | high homicide rates driven by various social phenomena, including | ||||
95 | organized crime and other social factors. One of the most crucial | ||||
96 | challenges for governance in Jalisco or any of the municipalities that | ||||
97 | comprises the MAG is the coordination of security forces to | ||||
98 | effectively reduce homicides. In 2023, the homicide rate decreased | ||||
99 | compared to the previous year, a figure that could be attributed to | ||||
100 | the efforts within the MAG to coordinate municipal police forces. | ||||
101 | However, this also suggests that crimes in neighboring municipalities | ||||
102 | may help predicting crimes in a MAG municipality. In this study, we | ||||
103 | conducted a comparison of the SARIMAX forecasting model, using as | ||||
104 | exogenous variables other crimes committed in the neighboring | ||||
105 | municipalities that also constitute the MAG, to improve shortterm (1 | ||||
106 | and 2 months) prediction of the Guadalajara homicide count. In | ||||
107 | addition to the improevment of the forecasting results, identifying | ||||
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