The house is burning: assessment of habitat loss due to wildfires in Central Mexico

Fire suppression and climate change have increased the frequency and severity of wildfires, but the responses of many organisms to wildfire are still largely unknown. In this study, we assessed the risk of habitat loss for amphibians, mammals, and reptiles caused by wildfires in central Mexico. We accomplished this by: (1) determining the likelihood of wildfire occurrence over a 12-year period using historical records and the Poisson probability mass function to pinpoint the most susceptible areas to wildfire; (2) evaluating species exposure by identifying natural land use that aligns with the potential distribution areas of biodiversity; (3) assessing species vulnerability based on the classifications established by the IUCN and CONABIO. Our findings have unveiled three regions exhibiting a concentration of high-risk values. Among these, two are positioned near major urban centers, while the third lies in the southeastern sector of the Nevado de Toluca protection area. Amphibians emerged as the taxonomic group most severely impacted, with a substantial number of species falling within the Critically Endangered and Endangered categories, closely followed by mammals and reptiles. Furthermore, we have identified a correlation between the location of risk zones and agricultural areas. This study revealed hotspots that can offer valuable guidance for strategic initiatives in fire-prone regions associated to the potential distribution of amphibians, mammals, and reptiles. Moreover, future studies should contemplate integrating field data to enhance our comprehension of the actual effects of wildfires on the spatial distribution of these animal groups.